Hurricane Hilary, currently a formidable Category 4 storm, is on course for what could be the first direct impact of a tropical storm on Southern California since 1939.
Here's the latest update: As of 8am ET on Friday, Hurricane Hilary boasts peak winds of 145 miles per hour, firmly within Category 4 status. Its center is positioned about 400 miles to the south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, with a west-northwest trajectory at a speed of approximately 13 mph.
The impending threat includes the potential for several years' worth of rainfall condensed into a mere one to three days, particularly over arid desert regions. This could result in life-threatening flash floods. Over the next 24-36 hours, the storm is projected to veer northward and intensify in forward movement.
While the storm is anticipated to weaken starting Saturday as it traverses cooler oceanic waters, the speed of its forward motion might mitigate the extent of this weakening.
Here's the situation: An exceptionally uncommon weather pattern with connections to human-induced climate change is unfolding across the nation. This pattern is set to drive the receding yet still potent Hurricane Hilary rapidly northward into the usually arid Southwest over the next four days.
The impending risk spans from San Diego to Los Angeles, extending inland across the eastern California deserts, and is poised to bring heavy rains, flooding, high winds, and beach erosion from sizable waves. The National Hurricane Center points out that despite substantial weakening, Hurricane Hilary is projected to maintain tropical-storm-force winds upon its arrival in southern California.
The implications of this convergence of factors have meteorologists like Daniel Swain suggesting that the issuance of tropical storm watches in southern California would be a historic event for the state. The National Weather Service's San Diego forecast office warns that the combination of heavy rainfall, potential flash floods, and strong winds could lead to a highly impactful occurrence for Southern California.
As per Maxar WeatherDesk, downtown Los Angeles has seen more than 2 inches of summer rainfall only once before, in 1877.
Hurricane Hilary's principal peril is water-related, with the Hurricane Center highlighting the possibilities of "Flash, urban, and arroyo flooding" and "The potential for significant impacts."
The Weather Prediction Center has assigned a "moderate risk" for excessive rainfall across a vast area encompassing San Diego to Las Vegas. In the mountainous zones of San Diego County, a "high risk" exists due to the ascending warm, moist air that is expected to condense and yield substantial rainfall.
The changing climate, driven by human activities, has led to more frequent and intense extreme precipitation events. It also leads to tropical storms and hurricanes carrying greater amounts of rainfall, as the warmer atmosphere and oceans provide more moisture for these storms to transport.
By the numbers: The National Weather Service anticipates a range of 2 to 10 inches or more of rainfall across Southern California and neighboring states.
Flash flood watches are in effect for around 26 million residents spanning four states: California, Utah, Nevada, and Arizona.
Within just 24 hours from Thursday to Friday, the storm's maximum sustained winds escalated by an astonishing 75 mph, more than twice the rate deemed indicative of rapid intensification. This aligns with the growing trend of heightened rapid intensification of hurricanes and typhoons, as well as sharper leaps in intensity over shorter durations, attributed to human-driven climate change.
Zooming out: The climatic configuration propelling Hilary toward the Southwest involves an emerging, potent heat dome over the Central U.S. Its potency is likely influenced by climate change. Concurrently, a low-pressure system is anticipated to approach the Central California coastline.
The heat dome's presence, likely amplified by climate change, is poised to induce the hottest week of summer for millions across regions stretching from Texas to Iowa. This dynamic interaction is projected to propel Hilary northward, targeting Southern California.
Historically, unusual weather patterns have been linked to extreme weather events.
The upper-level wind dynamics between the heat dome and other systems in the eastern Pacific Ocean will rapidly drive Hurricane Hilary northward, a deviation from the typical pace of tropical cyclones in that region. This rapid trajectory is expected to prevent the storm from fully weakening over cooler oceanic waters before reaching California.
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